Who will be the next Mayor of Memphis? Wanna bet? Here’s your odds.

The CA had a story on Sunday about about the Mayoral hopefuls “considering the odds”. I’ve got your odds right here.

Updated July 7th, 2009. Willie just “unresigned”. I don’t think he’s going anywhere.

Willie Herenton

Mayor. Currently. His resignation is the reason we’re even talking about the special election, but according to this article on the Commercial Appeal, Herenton has considered resigning and then running in the special election, “depending on how many candidates get in the race, to keep it from getting crazy.” Yeah, because that wouldn’t be crazy.

He’s already filed for his pension and several of his cronies and lapdogs have already resigned as well. Those actions, combined with Willies’ newfound hatred for Steve Cohen and desire for his seat in Congress point to him finally going away this time. However, if he resigns and runs in the special election just to be a pain, he’ll win easily. He’s about as doubleminded and unstable as the good Mr. Mongo.

If he resigns and runs, he’ll win. 5-1 he’ll pull that garbage on the city.

Update: Herenton just “unresigned” until July 31st. Yeah, right. He’s not going anywhere. It’s even money whether he’ll stay or go now.

Herenton Odds of “winning”: Even Money. Not taking bets.

Announced Candidates

A.C. Wharton

County Mayor. The  favorite to win the race due to his already high visibility and his reported $100,000 “war chest” left over from his last county mayoral race.  Some have accused him of striking a deal with Herenton before the 2007 mayoral election to keep Wharton out of the race in return for Herentons promise to step down before his term was up. Herenton has denied that.

Wharton Odds of winning: 3-2

Myron Lowery

Current city councilman, soon to be Interim Mayor.  He will be the third black mayor of Memphis, following J. O. Patterson Jr. and Willie Herenton.  It looks like he’s going to take a lot of action in the three-ish months he’ll have the interim job. He’s already expressed his desire to get rid of as many Herenton cronies as possible.  Most people would call that a successful career even if that’s all he does while he’s in charge.

Lowery Odds of winning: 3-1

Carol Chumney.

Former city concilwoman, longtime Herenton foe. Chumney was one of the two candidates (the other being Herman Morris) in 2007 that split the anti-Herenton vote, allowing Herenton to keep the job by default. Hereton “won” the race with roughly 40% of the votes. Chumney had about 35% and Morris had 20%  (John Willingham and write-ins took the rest). Also, we used to go to the same 24-Hour Fitness. She might still go there, I have no idea.

Chumney Odds of winning: 10-1

Ken Whalum Jr.

Member of the Memphis city school board. I don’t know the guy personally, but I do read my newspaper. And judging from the info in the recent Commercial Appeal article, Whalum is a poor man’s Willie Herenton. Racially Divisive? Check! Uses his current city job as a stepping stone to a bigger job? Check! Doesn’t show up for work when he’s needed? Check! Refers to his abrasive, caustic, toxic personality as “passion”? Check! He’s got everything he needs to replace Willie except for 18 years of media exposure and name recognition. Even Thaddeus Matthews thinks this guy is a tool.

Whalum Odds of winning: 250-1

Possible Candidates

Kemp Conrad

City Councilman, elected in 2007 and former head of the Shelby County Republican party. He’ll get the votes of the hard core republicans, but I don’t know how much further his reach will go. He will be able to pull in money and that will give him an edge over the other candidates not name Wharton or Lowery. Some people don’t realize that a city mayor can’t change the laws about abortion or gay marraige any more than a city garbageman. Kemp, you MUST update your website. Please.

Kemp Odds of winning:  10-1

Jim Strickland

City Councilman, elected in 2007. Some of his supporters have set up a “Draft Jim Strickland for Mayor” group on Facebook. As of 12:00 on Thursday July 2nd, it has 1,000 members. Strickland seems to have the most support online of the undeclared candidates. There’s the Facebook page, this site, this guy, and another Facebook group.

Strickland Odds of winning: 15-1

Larry Godwin

Current Director of the Memphis Police Department says he’s listening to “leaders in the community” that are encouraging him to run. Speculation is those leaders are dumb. He has a name recognition over some of the second tier candidates because he’s on TV every night talking about the latest murder that happened on his watch. He also has a huge disadvantage because HE’S ON TV EVERY NIGHT TALKING ABOUT THE LATEST MURDER THAT HAPPENED ON HIS WATCH.

Godwin Odds of winning: 50-1

Edmund Ford Sr.

Ex-City Coucilman and the one guy to beat the rap on the Tennessee Waltz bribery case. In case you missed it, you can see the CA’s video of him accepting $4,900 cash via hidden camera here. All he has to run on is his last name which still carries weight in this town. He’ll get some votes, but he can’t win.

Ford Sr. Odds of winning: 50-1

Herman Morris

Former head of MLG&W and the third party in the 2007 election that Herenton barely won. If he or Carol Chumney had dropped out, the other would have won and we would be looking in the rear-view mirror at the Herenton and his posse. His main appeal was he wasn’t Willie Herenton and he had a chance of winning. With no Willie to run against, and plenty of other good candidates in the race, Morris doesn’t really have a shot.

Morris Odds of winning: 50-1

Charles Carpenter

The lawyer who ran Herenton’s five mayoral campaign victories. See also: “Crony”. The only way he’d really have a shot at winning is if Herenton campaigned for him, hard. Seeing how Willie is focusing on his upcoming congressional defeat to Steve Cohen, I’m going to bet Willie doesn’t have much time for his old lackey. In fact, I expect Carpenter to announce he’s running, collect some money from his Herenton contacts and then drop out to go work for his old boss.

Carpenter Odds of winning: 100-1

Wanda Halbert

City Councilwoman. If you believe “All publicity is good publicity”, then Halbert has receieved plenty of good publicity recently. She’s the lady who interfered with the police when her son was being arrested for drug possession. She showed up at the scene and got them to take the handcuffs off her son and write him a ticket instead of taking him down to 201 Poplar for some free lodging. She has no chance.

Halbert odds of winning: 250-1

James Harvey

Member of the Shelby County Board of Commissioners. He’s not going to win.

Harvey Odds of winning: 250-1

Jerry Lawler

The former star of the wresting world (It’s still real to me….!) is playing with the idea of running. He first ran in 1999, finishing in 3rd (of 15!) to Willie and Joe Ford.

He might run, but he knows as well as anyone that he’s not going to win. He’s been making the rounds on the local radio shows and I saw him on the 9:00 news on Fox last night. He seems like a nice guy, so it’s hard to fault him for using Herentons cry for attention as a way to get some publicity for himself.

Lawler Odds of winning: 500-1

Prince Mongo.

His mom calls him Robert Hodges, but he calls himself “Prince Mongo, the ambassador of the planet Zambodia.” He has been a local, uh, “eccentric” around town for years. His most notable contribution to the history of Memphis was his campaign for City Mayor in 1991. Mongo recieved almost 3,000 votes allowing Willie Herenton to beat incumbent Mayor Dick Hackett by 142 votes.  He’s been laying low lately, but he may throw his hat in the ring as well. Thanks toVitreousHumor on Twitter for the Mongo reminder.

Mongo Odds of winning: 1000-1