Who will be the next Mayor of Memphis? Wanna bet? Here’s your odds.

The CA had a story on Sunday about about the Mayoral hopefuls “considering the odds”. I’ve got your odds right here.

Updated July 7th, 2009. Willie just “unresigned”. I don’t think he’s going anywhere.

Willie Herenton

Mayor. Currently. His resignation is the reason we’re even talking about the special election, but according to this article on the Commercial Appeal, Herenton has considered resigning and then running in the special election, “depending on how many candidates get in the race, to keep it from getting crazy.” Yeah, because that wouldn’t be crazy.

He’s already filed for his pension and several of his cronies and lapdogs have already resigned as well. Those actions, combined with Willies’ newfound hatred for Steve Cohen and desire for his seat in Congress point to him finally going away this time. However, if he resigns and runs in the special election just to be a pain, he’ll win easily. He’s about as doubleminded and unstable as the good Mr. Mongo.

If he resigns and runs, he’ll win. 5-1 he’ll pull that garbage on the city.

Update: Herenton just “unresigned” until July 31st. Yeah, right. He’s not going anywhere. It’s even money whether he’ll stay or go now.

Herenton Odds of “winning”: Even Money. Not taking bets.

Announced Candidates

A.C. Wharton

County Mayor. The  favorite to win the race due to his already high visibility and his reported $100,000 “war chest” left over from his last county mayoral race.  Some have accused him of striking a deal with Herenton before the 2007 mayoral election to keep Wharton out of the race in return for Herentons promise to step down before his term was up. Herenton has denied that.

Wharton Odds of winning: 3-2

Myron Lowery

Current city councilman, soon to be Interim Mayor.  He will be the third black mayor of Memphis, following J. O. Patterson Jr. and Willie Herenton.  It looks like he’s going to take a lot of action in the three-ish months he’ll have the interim job. He’s already expressed his desire to get rid of as many Herenton cronies as possible.  Most people would call that a successful career even if that’s all he does while he’s in charge.

Lowery Odds of winning: 3-1

Carol Chumney.

Former city concilwoman, longtime Herenton foe. Chumney was one of the two candidates (the other being Herman Morris) in 2007 that split the anti-Herenton vote, allowing Herenton to keep the job by default. Hereton “won” the race with roughly 40% of the votes. Chumney had about 35% and Morris had 20%  (John Willingham and write-ins took the rest). Also, we used to go to the same 24-Hour Fitness. She might still go there, I have no idea.

Chumney Odds of winning: 10-1

Ken Whalum Jr.

Member of the Memphis city school board. I don’t know the guy personally, but I do read my newspaper. And judging from the info in the recent Commercial Appeal article, Whalum is a poor man’s Willie Herenton. Racially Divisive? Check! Uses his current city job as a stepping stone to a bigger job? Check! Doesn’t show up for work when he’s needed? Check! Refers to his abrasive, caustic, toxic personality as “passion”? Check! He’s got everything he needs to replace Willie except for 18 years of media exposure and name recognition. Even Thaddeus Matthews thinks this guy is a tool.

Whalum Odds of winning: 250-1

Possible Candidates

Kemp Conrad

City Councilman, elected in 2007 and former head of the Shelby County Republican party. He’ll get the votes of the hard core republicans, but I don’t know how much further his reach will go. He will be able to pull in money and that will give him an edge over the other candidates not name Wharton or Lowery. Some people don’t realize that a city mayor can’t change the laws about abortion or gay marraige any more than a city garbageman. Kemp, you MUST update your website. Please.

Kemp Odds of winning:  10-1